In his inaugural address to the nation, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu declared that the fuel subsidy scheme had ceased to exist. “Fuel subsidy is gone,” he said, and then ‘fuel subsidy’ peaked at number two on Nigeria’s Twitter trend table.

For over a decade, previous administrations considered eliminating fuel subsidies but failed in implementation, owing largely to popular opposition. Now backed by the law, it is still an emotive topic, and many are curious about the president’s stance.

READ ALSO: BREAKING: Tinubu Sworn in as President

Although it is predicted that the elimination of subsidies will lead to momentary economic hardship, it is being received rather warmly, in contrast to 11 years ago, when just the mention of it was met with fierce opposition.

“A president has just announced he’s removing subsidy and nobody wants to occupy Nigeria?” One Twitter user asked in reference to the new disposition.

WHY SHOULD THE REMOVAL OF FUEL SUBSIDY MAKE ANYONE WANT TO OCCUPY NIGERIA?

On January 1, 2012, former President Goodluck Jonathan abruptly ended fuel subsidies, sparking the Occupy Nigeria protest.

Occupy Nigeria was an anti-subsidy removal campaign, which was later propagated to unseat Jonathan and his People’s Democratic Party (PDP). It was also one of the corridors through which the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) was installed.

Some of the leading protesters, all APC supporters, now hail the decision to eliminate subsidies as significant and advantageous for the Nigerian people. Ten years ago, this rationale was widely contested.

N65 OR NOTHING

In protest of Jonathan’s 2012 fuel subsidy removal policy, Bashir Ahmad, the digital media aide to Muhammadu Buhari, the immediate past president, wrote, “N65 or nothing.”

Ahmad was a front-runner of the #OccupyNigeria protest in Kano State and on social media. He agitated not just against the removal of fuel subsidies but also openly expressed his desire to remove Jonathan and his government.

However, in a 2016 tweet, Ahmad quoted President Tinubu as saying, “I can swear that President Muhammadu Buhari will not misappropriate the funds saved from the removal of subsidy.” 

With petrol prices at N185 per litre, more than double his N65 baseline, and expected to more than triple after fuel subsidies are gone, Ahmad appears to have lost interest in occupying Nigeria.

He wrote a congratulatory message to Tinubu after his swearing in as president, when he explicitly said that there would be no further subsidies.

READ ALSO: JUST IN: NEC Suspends Fuel Subsidy Removal

CUT COST BEFORE REMOVING SUBSIDY

In 2011, the Jonathan-led administration budgeted N245 billion for fuel subsidies, but by the end of the year, the administration said it had spent N2.6 trillion subsidising fuel. 

When the administration ended fuel subsidies on January 1, 2012, Japhet Omojuwa, a popular social media critic, led a protest against Jonathan, using the hashtag ‘Occupy Nigeria’, his gripe being that the former president failed to curb the corruption in his cabinet and now sought to make common Nigerians pay for their actions.

In multiple tweets from 2012, when Jonathan removed subsidies, to the 2015 presidential election campaigns, Omojuwa called for the sack of Jonathan and his cabinet members.

“Nigerians will fight to keep the subsidies until public officers make certain commitments, the most telling of which is their salaries and allowances. Until then, the shutdown of Nigeria, or ‘Naijacalypse'”, he wrote in his 2012 CNN opinion piece.

Post-Jonathan, the tides seemed to have turned. Despite increased budgets for NASS members from 2012’s N71 billion and multiple corruption scandals linked to the APC-led government, Omojuwa has extended his support for Tinubu’s “Fuel subsidy is gone”, stating that the president’s statement was to show that he didn’t intend to bring the dead back.

SAY NO TO CRIPPLING IMF POLICIES

On Monday, Ogbeni Dipo Awojide, a UK-based Nigerian, quoted President Tinubu as saying, “There is no budgetary allocation for fuel subsidy. Fuel subsidy is gone.”

Eleven years ago however, Awojide heralded the Occupy Nigeria protest in London against the fuel subsidy removal policy.

FROM OCCUPY NIGERIA TO PATRIOTIC ACT

In the aftermath of the Occupy Nigeria protests, Lauretta Onochie, the chair of the Niger Delta Development Commission and aide to Buhari, wrote: “The fear of #OccupyNigeria is the beginning of wisdom for the Jonathan administration. June 2012 has come and gone, and no fuel hike.”

By 2016 however, Onochie, whose party was now at the helm of affairs, described subsidy removal as a patriotic act made in the long-term interest of Nigerians.

In justification of her new choice, Onochie explained, “Looting was the reason I did not trust the administration of Jonathan to remove the fuel subsidy in 2012. It was made up of more than 40% thieves.”

READ ALSO: NLC Threatens Strike, Nationwide Protest Over FG’s Planned Petrol Subsidy Removal

TACKLE REFINERIES FIRST

During the Occupy Nigeria protests, Abike Dabiri, the pioneer chair of the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM), instituted during Buhari’s administration, tweeted, “#Fuelsubsidy Tackle the issue of refineries first before even talking about removing the subsidy.”

Subsidy payments have risen steadily from N2.09 trillion in 2011 to N4 trillion in 2022, yet prices rose from N65 to N185. In 2021 alone, N100 billion was spent on rehabilitating refineries that never functioned.

Daily Trust reported that Nigeria spent N12.05 trillion on refineries and subsidies in the past seven years, yet the NIDCOM chair has remained silent about the signing into law of the subsidy removal bill and Tinubu’s proclamation. She has instead congratulated the new president.