On May 31, the National Orientation Agency (NOA) published the 11th edition of its weekly newsletter called ‘The Explainer’. In this edition of the newsletter, Paul Odeniyi, NOA’s Deputy Director of Press, authored an analysis of Nigeria’s finances under Tinubu in an article titled ‘Financial Engineering: FG Reduces Debt Burden’.

In this article, Odeniyi compared the quantity of crude oil that Nigeria produced in June 2023 to what it produced in the first quarter of 2024 as an indicator of improved revenue performance in Tinubu’s first year as president.

“Oil revenue flowed from an impressive increase in oil production, rising from 1.3 million barrels per day in June 2023 to 1.7 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023,” the article read in part.

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The Nigerian presidency republished this edition of the explainer via its X page on Sunday. As of the time of this report, more than 17,000 people have viewed this publication on the presidency’s X account alone.

The Explainer – A publication by the National Orientation Agency – Vol 1 No 11. pic.twitter.com/u1c0AhCNfA

— Presidency Nigeria (@NGRPresident) June 2, 2024

CLAIM: Nigeria produced 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in the first quarter of 2024.

VERIFICATION: To verify if the claim made by the NOA in its publication is true, FIJ compared the figure stated in its newsletter to oil production data published by a state source and an independent source.

According to the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC)’s monthly oil production status report, Nigeria’s highest output in 2024 was 1.43 million barrels per day produced in January.

FIJ considered the volume of oil condensates produced in the same month as part of what the NOA might be referring to. However, the sum would still be 1.64 million barrels of oil per day.

Furthermore, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ Monthly Oil Market Report pegged Nigeria’s highest output in 2024 at 1.427 (approximately 1.43) million barrels per day.

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CONCLUSION: The NOA exaggerated Nigeria’s oil production capability in its report. The country did not, at any point, produce up to 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in 2024, even at an approximate value. The highest Nigeria ever recorded this year was 1.43 million barrels per day in January.

VERDICT: The claim that Nigeria produced 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in the first quarter of 2024 is false.