On Tuesday, the National Orientation Agency (NOA) took to X to celebrate Nigeria’s return as Africa’s largest economy. The agency claimed Nigeria boasted a GDP of $450 billion and a per capita income of $2.20.

According to the post, Nigeria had overtaken South Africa ($360 billion), Egypt ($300 billion) and Algeria ($170 billion), with other economies like Morocco, Kenya and Angola following suit.

READ MORE: NBS Silent 10 Days Past Rebased CPI, GDP Reports Deadline

Here is what NOA published in full:

“Less than a year after falling to fourth place, Nigeria has regained its status as Africa’s largest economy, just two weeks after reclaiming its position as the continent’s top oil upstream hub. With a GDP of $450 billion and a per capita income of $2.20, Nigeria has surpassed South Africa ($360 billion), followed by Egypt ($300 billion) and Algeria ($170 billion).

Other major African economies include Morocco ($120 billion), Kenya ($99 billion), Angola ($92 billion), Ethiopia ($91 billion), Ghana ($67 billion) and Tanzania ($62 billion). World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Dr Ndiamé Diop, credited the rebound to macroeconomic reforms, including exchange rate adjustments and improved foreign exchange access, which have bolstered growth”.

IMMEDIATE REG FLAGS

The claim published by the NOA raises immediate red flags. Reputable sources such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and Trading Economics consistently report that Nigeria’s nominal GDP per capita is in the hundreds of dollars.

For instance, late 2023 World Bank data estimates Nigeria’s GDP per capita at roughly $1,880. Given Nigeria’s GDP of $450 billion and an estimated population of 200–230 million, the implied per capita income should be around $2,000–$2,250 — not a mere $2.20. This discrepancy suggests a miscalculation.

MORE RED FLAGS: DATA AND REBASING

Adding to the confusion, Nigeria has not yet finalised a complete GDP estimate for the 2024 fiscal year. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is currently engaged in a comprehensive rebasing exercise.

Even if this process may lead to downward revisions in per capita figures when expressed in US dollars, it would still yield figures in the hundreds rather than a couple of dollars.

FIJ found that the information published by NOA is consistent with data from an infographic published on Reddit, five years ago by nerdymaps. It references 2019 figures sourced from the International Monetary Fund.

Every piece of information published by the NOA is consistent with this infographic, with the exception of the per capita income. The figure listed on the infograph is $2,200.

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FIJ dug further and found that the data on the infographic is not consistent with the source it is referencing — the IMF. According to the IMF’s data wrapper, here is what the GDPs of the countries in question looked like in 2019:

CONCLUSION AND VERDICT

The assertion that Nigeria’s per capita income is $2.20 is demonstrably false.

It stems from a misinterpretation of outdated and inaccurate 2019 data and a conversion error that misrepresents the nation’s economic reality.