As is customary on New Year’s Day, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu addressed Nigerians on Wednesday, laying out his administration’s vision for 2025.

In his speech, the President reflected on his administration’s achievements in 2024 and presented them as reference points for progress in the coming year.

One of the key claims he made was that the naira had strengthened against the US dollar. The President cited this as evidence of improving economic stability:

“Economic indicators point to a positive and encouraging outlook for our nation. Fuel prices have gradually decreased, and we recorded foreign trade surpluses in three consecutive quarters. Foreign reserves have risen, and the Naira has strengthened against the US dollar, bringing greater stability.”

READ ALSO: FULL TEXT: Tinubu’s 2025 New Year Speech

On the surface, this statement appears reassuring. Nigeria ended 2024 with the naira showing a slight improvement against the dollar compared to the previous days. However, when viewed in the context of the entire fiscal year and the previous year, the claim does not hold up.

CLAIM:

The Nigerian naira has strengthened against the US dollar, bringing greater stability.

VERIFICATION:

Using exchange rate data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the World Bank Data Group, FIJ compared the naira’s performance against the dollar in 2023 and 2024. Key metrics such as monthly averages, and highest and lowest points were examined.

• 2024 Performance:
  • The naira’s lowest average monthly value in 2024 was N941.26 in January.
  • In December 2024, the naira hit an average peak of N1,652 to the dollar.
• 2023 Performance:
  • The naira’s lowest monthly average in 2023 was N455.27 in January.
  • Its highest monthly average by December 2023 was N876 to the dollar.

READ MORE: How Cadbury, Nestlé Nigeria Lost N300bn in 9 Months

Even the naira’s best point in 2024 (N941.26) did not surpass its worst point in 2023 (N876). This demonstrates how the strength of the currency worsened in these two years.

Furthermore, during the first half of 2023, the exchange rate ranged between N450 and N500. The currency went on a downward spiral in July 2023 following Tinubu’s announcement of a naira float.

The naira crashed to a monthly average of about N615.78 from there. From that point onward, the exchange rate spiralled out of control, eventually crossing N1,600 in December 2024.

FIJ previously reported how the naira’s devaluation significantly affected businesses. For instance, multinationals like Nestlé recorded substantial losses in 2023, despite increased revenues, due to the weakening local currency.

READ MORE: ANALYSIS: Devalued Naira, Inflation Undermine Reported 3.46% GDP Growth

CONCLUSION:

Relative to the previous fiscal year, the naira has not gained against the dollar. While Tinubu’s statement might seem accurate in isolation — focusing on slight gains in the latter months of 2024 — it omits the broader context of long-term depreciation and economic instability.

VERDICT:

The claim that the naira strengthened against the dollar is false. The statement appears to have been carefully framed to obscure the naira’s overall performance and mislead the public about its economic stability.