Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, when measured in dollars, has dropped from $877 in 2024 to $835 in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund.

This decline comes despite the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)’s report of a record GDP growth in the 2024 fiscal year. In the last quarter of 2024, Nigeria’s GDP increased from N60.66 trillion to N71.13 trillion.

On paper, this suggests an expanding economy. But when viewed in dollar terms, the reality is gloomy and reflective of the everyday financial experience of many Nigerians.

Essentially, the decline in dollar-denominated GDP per capita places Nigeria among the lowest-ranking countries globally.

READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: Devalued Naira, Inflation Undermine Reported 3.46% GDP Growth

HOW DOES NIGERIA COMPARE WITH SIMILAR-SIZED COUNTRIES?

GDP represents the overall size of a country’s economy. In theory, a growing GDP means increased local production, more jobs, and greater consumption of goods and services.

GDP per capita is calculated by dividing total GDP by the population and in essence, tells a more complete story. Looking at other countries with populations similar to Nigeria’s, the contrast is striking.

Indonesia, with about 275 million people, has a GDP per capita of approximately $5,250. Also, Brazil, with a population of 216 million, enjoys a figure of about $10,820.

Nigeria’s $835 GDP per capita in 2025 is far behind even among African nations. The other economic powerhouses in Subsaharan Africa, for instance, recorded significantly higher GDP per capita. Ghana’s GDP per capita is around $2,190, while Kenya’s stands at roughly the same level.

Nigeria’s GDP per capita is only higher than a few countries including Niger, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, Central Africa Republic and Burundi.

Some of these countries, such as Niger and the Central Africa Republic, are currently nursing the blowback of military takeovers, militia wars, severe flooding and extreme poverty.

WHAT IS CAUSING THE DECLINE?

One common explanation for a declining GDP per capita is rapid population growth diluting economic gains. But in Nigeria, the population estimates since 2023 have been relatively modest and do not fully explain the near 5% drop in dollar GDP per capita.

Nigeria’s population estimatedly increased from approximately 227 million in 2023 to about 232 million in 2024 and 237 million in 2025. This level of growth does not account for the sharp decline from $877 to $835 per person. Clearly, other factors are at play.

The main culprit would be the naira’s severe depreciation. When domestic output — recorded in naira — is converted into US dollars, a currency drop can significantly reduce GDP per capita figures.

Over the past year, the naira has suffered a dramatic decrease in value due to a shift to President Tinubu’s exchange rate policies in 2023.

Between September 2023 and September 2024 for instance, the naira depreciated by 71.19%, dropping from N755.27 to N1,601.5 per dollar, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The naira traded at N1,499 per dollar at press time.

A look at past data reinforces this trend. In 2020, Nigeria recorded a GDP per capita of $2,100, with the naira averaging N380 per dollar, despite the global economic shock of COVID-19.

In 2021, GDP per capita slightly declined to $2,090 as the naira traded at N413 per dollar. By 2022, it rose to $2,200, with the exchange rate at N449 per dollar. In 2022, Nigeria recorded decent GDP growth nominally and in real terms.

However, in 2023, following currency devaluation, the naira plummeted to N899 per dollar, and GDP per capita fell to $1,690. By 2024, it had further dropped to $877, leading to the current crisis.

READ ALSO: How Naira Devaluation Problem Renders Nigeria’s GDP Growth Meaningless in 2025

THE IMPACT: RISING INFLATION

For an import-dependent economy like Nigeria, currency devaluation has severe consequences. A weaker naira drives up the cost of imported goods, raising prices across the board.

Businesses face higher costs for raw materials, foreign debt and customs duties, which they pass on to consumers. The result is a surge in living costs.

The numbers tell the story. Inflation soared from 26.72% in Q3 2023 to 32.70% in the same quarter of 2024. Everyday goods are becoming increasingly unaffordable for many Nigerians.