Nigeria produced an average of 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, enough to meet its OPEC quota but far from the 2.06 million bpd target baked into the Senate-approved budget.

OPEC’s Monthly Oil Report put Nigeria’s January output at 1,539,000 bpd, a slight bump from December’s 1,485,000 bpd.

The Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) recorded a similar figure, reporting total crude and condensate production at 1,737,480 bpd, with crude alone at 1,538,697 bpd.

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While this keeps Nigeria in OPEC’s good books, it leaves a gap in the government’s revenue projections.

When President Bola Tinubu first presented the N49.7 trillion 2025 budget in December, it assumed an oil production target of 2.06 million bpd. That budget was later reviewed upwards to N54.9 trillion before being passed in February.

The oil production shortfall isn’t just a rounding error, it has real consequences. Missing production targets means losing revenue. The implications of this include delays in infrastructure projects or more borrowing.

Nigeria has been here before. In 2024, the government pegged its budget on a 1.78 million bpd target, but crude oil production never reached that figure.

The highest combined crude and condensate output for the year was 1.69 million bpd in November, while actual crude oil production averaged just 1.34 million bpd for the year.

The effect of that is an expenditure backlog. By December, Senate President Godswill Akpabio had to push the 2024 budget’s implementation deadline to June 30, 2025, due to poor execution.

He reported capital expenditure at 50% and recurrent spending at 48%. A separate assessment from the Presidential Economic Team, led by Minister Wale Edun, also pegged the capital expenditure performance at a meagre 25%.

On the surface, it may appear too early to pitch oil production figures against the budget target. But historically, January has been one of the stronger months for Nigerian oil production.

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For instance, in 2024, only November and December outperformed January. Similarly in 2023, only three months — February, March and December — recorded higher production figures than January. For 2022, Nigeria’s peak production month was also January.

Except Nigeria consistently outperforms its oil production volume in January, the country may be caught in a similar fiscal trouble as 2024.