Nigeria has once again fallen short of both the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production quota and its own budget benchmark, FIJ can report.

This marks the second consecutive month that the country has failed to meet its target, raising concerns over revenue shortfalls and economic stability.

According to the Wednesday monthly oil production report from OPEC, Nigeria’s crude output stood at 1.465 million barrels per day (bpd) based on direct communication. Secondary sources provided a slightly higher estimate of 1.560 million bpd.

READ MORE: Nigeria’s January Oil Output Falls 500,000 bpd Short of Target

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) corroborated the lower figure, reporting a crude production of 1.465 million bpd, while total crude and condensate output averaged 1.671 million bpd.

These figures fall well below the 2.06 million bpd projection used in Nigeria’s 2025 budget. They also miss the 1.5 million bpd quota OPEC set for Nigeria at the beginning of the year.

Already, Nigeria reported 1.53 million bpd in January. The decline in February and the trend do not inspire confidence in the ambitious targets set by the Minister of State for Petroleum Heineken Lokpobiri. The Minister had boasted that Nigeria could reach 3 million bpd in 2025.

This production shortfall has far-reaching fiscal consequences. Lower crude output translates into reduced government revenue. The direct implications of this include delays in infrastructure projects and increased borrowing to cover the deficit.

This is not an isolated incident. In 2024, the government built its budget on an assumed production level of 1.78 million bpd, but actual output consistently fell short.

Throughout 2024, FIJ reported how both the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and the Federal Government made exaggerated claims about oil production levels.

READ ALSO: From 1.7m Barrels to 1.4m, How Nigeria’s Daily Crude Oil Production Declined in 6 Years

The highest crude and condensate output recorded in 2024 was 1.69 million bpd in November, but actual crude production for the year averaged just 1.34 million bpd.

The effects of this revenue shortfall were evident in government spending. By December, Senate President Godswill Akpabio extended the 2024 budget implementation deadline to June 30, 2025, citing poor execution.

At the time, capital expenditure stood at just 50%, while recurrent spending was at 48%.

With February’s production figures falling below OPEC’s quota, budgetary assumptions and the petroleum ministry’s projections, there is less likelihood of Nigeria meeting its revenue targets in 2025.