The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) recently announced it had hit a production peak of 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd).
Mele Kyari, the Chief Executive Officer of the NNPCL, had disclosed this during a press briefing on Thursday. About three days earlier, Gbenga Komolafe hinted at similar figures, at an oil industry conference, according to a Guardian report.
NNPCL celebrated the achievement, saying it aligned with the budget benchmarks set by the Tinubu administration. Kyari also explained that the team overseeing production was inaugurated on June 25, when output stood at 1.43mbpd.
He said that the team’s efforts steadily boosted production, reaching 1.7mbpd in August and peaking at 1.808mbpd in November.
But FIJ found a pattern of inconsistency in oil production figures often announced by NNPCL executives.
On several occassions, these figures are not reflected in the daily average published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), which is the official source of data, and the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE DATA
Kyari claimed the production team took over on June 25, when output was at 1.43mbpd and boosted it to 1.7mbpd by August 11. But official data tells a different story.
According to Nigeria’s official oil production records, June’s average was 1.276mbpd without condensate and 1.5mbpd with condensate. In August, the average was 1.351mbpd without condensate and 1.57mbpd with it.
OPEC’s secondary sources also diverged. OPEC reported Nigeria’s output in June at 1.369mbpd, excluding condensates. It reported 1.448mbpd in August, excluding condensates.
Kyari’s figures seem to reflect peak production on specific days rather than sustained daily averages — meaning Nigeria may still be falling short of the budget benchmarks.
PAST CLAIMS AND PATTERNS
This is not the first time Nigeria’s official oil production figures have raised eyebrows. In May, Kyari suggested Nigeria’s production was “nearing” 1.7mbpd.
But official data shows the monthly average was 1.25mbpd without condensates and 1.468mbpd with them. OPEC, on the other hand, recorded an average of only 1.419mbpd for that month.
Similarly, in June, the National Orientation Agency (NOA) inaccurately claimed that Nigeria had reached 1.7mbpd in the first quarter of 2024, despite production never coming close to that figure.
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In 2023, production estimates were shaky. Twice, in October and December, Petroleum Minister Heineken Lokpobiri pegged Nigeria’s production at 1.4mbpd.
But official data showed Nigeria never managed to record 1.4mbpd between October and December. Per OPEC, Nigeria only managed to reach that height in December, when it recorded 1.418mbpd.
Consistent performance below the official benchmark have consequences.
FIJ had reported that Nigeria missed its oil revenue target by over 67% in Q2 2024, pushing the budget deficit to a staggering N4.5 trillion. This shortfall worsens Nigeria’s already concerning debt load.
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