At least 542 people have been killed, and 2.2 million displaced between 2019 and 2025 due to escalating pastoral conflict in Nigeria, a report by SBM Intelligence has revealed.

The findings are detailed in a report titled How the Escalating Conflict Between Herders and Farming Communities in Nigeria’s Middle Belt Has Spread South While Maintaining Its Grip on the Country’s Food Basket.

The report, compiled by the Nigerian security intelligence consulting firm, documents how what started as a localised dispute over grazing land has spiralled into a nationwide crisis that has cost Nigeria food and economic stability for multiple years.

READ MORE: ANNALS OF HORROR: Names, Photos, Videos… How Bloodthirsty Fulani Herders Brought the Apocalypse to the Plateau on Christmas Eve

CLIMATE CHANGE, DESERTIFICATION DRIVING VIOLENCE

The report identifies climate change and desertification in northern Nigeria as primary factors that have forced pastoralists southward into agricultural regions. This, as a result, has caused deadly competition for land in these regions.

In addition to environmental pressures, arms proliferation, existing religious tensions and the politicisation of the conflict have exacerbated the violence.

For instance, the Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum (SMBLF) has accused the government of bias and alleged that authorities are reluctant to act decisively due to ethnic affiliations.

Similarly, religious groups have weighed in, with Christian leaders arguing that Fulani herders have been responsible for more deaths than Boko Haram over the past six years.

According to the SBM report, Christian communities believe pastoralist-related attacks have resulted in at least 7,400 deaths since 2019.

CRIMINAL NETWORKS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT FAILURES

The persistence of these crimes has been attributed to lapses in security enforcement and legislative oversight. Armed Fulani groups and other criminal elements are exploiting the weak security framework. This has made it difficult to differentiate between legitimate pastoralists and organised criminals.

Government policies aimed at addressing the conflict have yielded mixed results. The National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP), designed to transition herders to ranching, has made little progress due to inadequate funding and lack of political will.

Meanwhile, anti-open grazing laws adopted by 17 states have faced enforcement challenges.

According to the SBM report, 12 states — including Benue, Ekiti, Enugu, Kaduna, Kogi, Plateau, Sokoto and Taraba — have moved from legislation to active enforcement.

However, implementation remains inconsistent. In states like Ondo, for instance, gubernatorial assent is still pending. Even where laws exist, enforcement is often hindered by a lack of resources or political backing.

READ MORE: LIFE AFTER APOCALYPSE: Empty Villages, Abandoned Farmlands… Plateau Residents on Edge After Christmas Eve Attack

PROTESTS AND PUBLIC BACKLASH

The conflict has also triggered widespread protests, according to the report. SBM documented at least 47 demonstrations between 2019 and 2025.

Many of these protests started in response to mass killings in rural communities. These have escalated into demands for stronger government intervention and, in some cases, community-led reprisals.

FIJ has reported numerous attacks on rural communities in the past. In 2024, FIJ documented the names, lives and realities of victims of bloodthirsty Fulani herders in Plateau communities on Christmas Eve.