January 1, 2024 — Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Nigerian president, delivered a New Year speech where he recounted his achievements in the first six months of his admininistration and reeled out promises for the year starting that day.

To sum them up simply, the president promised reliable supply of electricity, local refining, food supply and affordability, foreign investment, security and reduced poverty.

FIJ takes a look at these promises by comparing the metrics before Tinubu made them to what they look like on December 31.

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FOOD SUPPLY AND FOOD AFFORDABILITY

One of the core promises Tinubu made during his New Year speech was to accelerate food production, beef up security and ultimately make food more affordable for Nigerians.

Here is what the president said about food security:

“To ensure constant food supply, security and affordability, we will step up our plan to cultivate 500,000 hectares of farmlands across the country to grow maize, rice, wheat, millet and other staple crops. We launched the dry season farming with 120,000 hectares of land in Jigawa State last November under our National Wheat Development Programme.”

Few pointers suggest that the Tinubu administration have started implementation on the plans to improve food supply in Nigeria. For instance in March, the African Development Bank Group pledged $134 million to support food production in Nigeria.

In February, just a few days before AfDB’s pledge, the presidency had announced that it was in its” final stages of releasing 42,000 metric tonnes of assorted food commodities to support the vulnerable population across the country”.

However, a closer look at the should-be consequences of a greater food supply — improved food security and affordability — suggests otherwise.

Per the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the cost of food has increased at staggering percentages since Tinubu made these promises in January. Local rice for instance sold at N917 for one measuring cup in December 2023. But in October 2024, the same quantity of rice sold for N1,944.

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A kilogramme of boneless beef was also sold at N3,146.94 in December 2023. As of October 2024, the same food item sells for N5,858, according to the official sources. Below is a table of some of the most frequently consumed staple food and the price increase.

RELIABLE SUPPLY OF ELECTRICITY

Electricity supply also formed a key part of Tinubu’s promises to Nigerians at the start of 2024.

The president started with claims of the efforts his administration had put into bolstering power supply in the country. He then promised that his government would deliver reliable power supply.

“Just this past December during COP28 in Dubai, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and I agreed and committed to a new deal to speed up the delivery of the Siemens Energy power project that will ultimately deliver reliable supply of electricity to our homes and businesses under the Presidential Power Initiative which began in 2018.

“Other power installation projects to strengthen the reliability of our transmission lines and optimise the integrity of our National grid are ongoing across the country. My administration recognises that no meaningful economic transformation can happen without steady electricity supply.”

But since the President made this promise in January, Nigeria has suffered 12 national grid collapses.

The major collapses were recorded in October and November when the grid stopped generating power at least three times each within both months.

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LOCAL REFINING OF PETROLEUM

The President, touched on petroleum refining in his new year speech. Tinubu promised that his administration would work hard to ensure Nigeria started refining crude oil locally in 2024.

 “In 2024, we are moving a step further in our quest to restart local refining of petroleum products with Port Harcourt Refinery, and the Dangote Refinery which shall fully come on stream”.

Although a private project, the Dangote refinery did kickstart local refining in Nigeria according to the President’s promise. But this, by no small description, began a controversy in the downstream oil sector in Nigeria.

To start with, Dangote announced the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL)’s failure to pay the balance for its stake in the company. As a result, the company stopped owning a 20 per cent share in the Dangote Refinery.

FIJ reported the fuel pricing scuffle between the NNPCL and the Dangote Group. Dangote had initially suggested the NNPCL would decide the price of fuel. The state-owned oil company would however come out to deny and ascribe price determination to ‘market forces’.

The Dangote Group also sued the NNPCL and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) in 2024. The company pleaded that the court should issue an injunction barring the NMDPRA from issuing import licences to oil marketers and the NNPCL.

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Meanwhile, the NNPCL declared the Port Harcourt Refinery operational towards the end of November. However, in about four days after the announcement, reports that the refinery had shut down temporarily surfaced.

Similar reports resurfaced in December. The NNPCL however came out to deny the reports soon after. On Monday, the NNPCL announced that the Warri Refinery had also began operation.

LOCAL AND FOREIGN INVESTMENT

The President touched on economic recovery, and investments were a key part of what he discussed. He promised to make Nigeria a preferred location for foreign and local investments in 2024. He said he would clear the obstacles to the necessary investments.

“In this new year, we will race against time to ensure all the fiscal and tax policies reforms we need to put in place are codified and simplified to ensure the business environment does not destroy value.

“On every foreign trip I have embarked on, my message to investors and other business people has been the same. Nigeria is ready and open for business.”

“I will fight every obstacle that impedes business competitiveness in Nigeria and I will not hesitate to remove any clog hindering our path to making Nigeria a destination of choice for local and foreign investments.”

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The most recently available data does not suggest that investment — especially foreign — has improved in Nigeria in 2024. In October, FIJ reported how Nigeria had recorded its lowest-ever quarterly Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) figures.

The report followed Tinubu’s October 1 speech which generated controversy over FDI inflows. The President had claimed that Nigeria had attracted about $30 billion in FDI up until then. FIJ found that Nigeria had only generated $994.41 million.