Published 20th Apr, 2022

By Joseph Adeiye

When Vladmir Putin, the President of Russia, invaded Ukraine in February, he thought it was a war that would end quickly.

Despite knowing that the war would end in some negative socioeconomic consequences for Russia, Putin still went ahead all the same.

He also made his supporters believe ‘he was invading Ukraine to liberate separatists regions from a fascist Ukrainian government’.

Now that the war is in its third month, it has obviously not ‘ended quickly’ just like Putin had envisioned.

Apart from the many losses Russia has recorded, its elite and some insiders in the Kremlin are beginning to raise concern about the cost of prosecuting a now ‘unending war’.

Since the war began, Russia has also suffered several sanctions from world powers like the United States of America, Great Britain, Germany and France.

Putin’s ‘military operation’ in Ukraine has also seen Russia lose more soldiers and equipment than was originally projected. The losses of Russian lives have continued to pile in Ukraine just as its economy has continued to shrunk at home.

According to a report by Bloomberg , a few Kremlin insiders are now quietly questioning Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine.

These insiders see Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine as a mistake. They also fear many important nations will isolate Russia for a very long time as a result.

Despite this widely held insider belief, it is expected that the former KGB officer would continue on the same path. It is also expected that Putin would continue to demand absolute support from his advisers.

Russia’s oligarchs and billionaires have lost a huge portion of their wealth to economic sanctions in Europe and America. Putin has chosen to ignore these changes in fortune while leveraging on Russia’s crude oil and gas markets for economic security.

Nonetheless, many tycoons and political elites are too fearful to speak publicly about their opposing views. Russia has also initiated a nationwide crackdown on dissenting voices. In April, the police arrested hundreds of Russians for protesting against the war in Ukraine. The government also warned the Russian media against describing its assault on Ukraine as ‘war’.

Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, investigative journalists and Co-Founders of Agentura.ru, believe that Putin’s service chiefs may reach a point where they defy the president very soon.

It is also believed that the siloviki —both the Russian security services and the military— are loyal to their personal interests, and not to Putin. This means they may one day lose faith in Putin’s leadership if Russia’s economic woes reach the point where their existence is threatened.

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